And on X that nightDan Orlovsky @danorlovsky7 — “Confidence is everything @Jaguars”
Since preseason
▲ 3.1
spots, from a 10.8 baseline
Where the national guys have the Jags, tracked every Tuesday morning. Ten ballots, the Hard Rock line out of Florida, and the running gap between what Duval sees and what they’ll admit.
Consensus line with the full outlet spread. Rank 1 is at the top.
Every outlet, every week. Lower is better.
| Outlet | Preseason | Wk 1 | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBS SportsPete Prisco | 3 | 2 | ▲ 1 |
| Pro Football TalkMike Florio | 9 | 5 | ▲ 4 |
| NFL.comNick Shook | 9 | 5 | ▲ 4 |
| Yahoo SportsFrank Schwab | 14 | 6 | ▲ 8 |
| Bleacher ReportB/R staff panel | 7 | 6 | ▲ 1 |
| USA TODAYNate Davis | 14 | 8 | ▲ 6 |
| Sports IllustratedConor Orr | 9 | 9 | — |
| FOX SportsRalph Vacchiano | 12 | 11 | ▲ 1 |
| PFFBradley Locker | 14 | 12 | ▲ 2 |
| ESPNNFL Nation panel | 17 | 13 | ▲ 4 |
| Consensus | 10.8 | 7.7 | ▲ 3.1 |
Outlets call these the “Week 2 rankings.” They’re scored here to the week they reflect.
Hard Rock Bet, Florida. Bar shows implied win probability.
| Market | Market open Feb 2026 | Wk 1 Post-CLE |
|---|---|---|
| AFC SouthJaguars to win the AFC South | 36.4%+175 | 42.6%+135 |
| AFCJaguars to win the AFC | 8.3%+1100 | 7.7%+1200 |
| Super Bowl LXIJaguars to win Super Bowl LXI | 4.8%+2000 | 4.3%+2250 |
Odds read Tuesday, September 15. The February open is a reference point, not a starting line - Hard Rock does not post a pre-kickoff price. Week-to-week movement starts tracking next Tuesday.
The consensus read on the team and on Trevor Lawrence.
Continuity, not novelty. The writers keep pointing back to 13-4 and 19 returning starters, and framing Week 1 as confirmation rather than revelation. Jacksonville was one of only two teams in the league to finish Week 1 in the top six in both EPA per play and EPA allowed per play. Two of the ten - Orr and Moton - argue in print against the number they themselves assigned.
It was the Browns. That is the entire bear case, and it is unanimous among the low rankers. The secondary caveat is the calendar: three outlets independently name the Week 2 trip to Denver as the first real test. The only non-opponent worry is accuracy - Lawrence has completed under 61% in back-to-back seasons, so 18-of-23 is one game, not a trend.
“Real, but Coen-enabled, and not yet proven against a real defense.” System effect and genuine leap are being told as the same story, not competing ones. The anti-small-sample argument reaches past Week 1 to his last five games of 2025 - 13 touchdowns to one interception, 113.5 rating. Nobody is calling it a mirage; nobody outside Prisco is calling it settled.
The eleven slots between Prisco and ESPN are not a disagreement about Sunday. Every writer describes the same dominant game. What they disagree about is how much last season counts. The high ballots treat Week 1 as confirming a body of work already in evidence - Schwab’s “there was nothing fluky about their season” is the whole argument in seven words. The low ballots hold their prior and decline to credit a win over Cleveland; Orr did not move Jacksonville at all, and said in the same breath that he is probably underrating them. There is also a mechanical reason the floor is so low: ESPN’s number is a poll of a dozen analysts, and a poll regresses toward its own preseason consensus and moves slowly by design. The spread is measuring inertia, not conviction.
CBS SportsPete Prisco2nd“They dominated the Browns, but now comes a tough one at Denver. Trevor Lawrence and the passing game will be dynamic this season.”
Yahoo SportsFrank Schwab6th“The Jaguars were fantastic last season. There was nothing fluky about their season. Then they looked dominant in Week 1. … The Jaguars deserve respect.”
Bleacher ReportMaurice Moton6th“After winning the AFC South title, [the Jaguars] are a bit overlooked among potential contenders this year. … Jacksonville may be a top-five team more so than a top-10 squad in the power rankings.”
Sports IllustratedConor Orr9th“I think we’re probably still underestimating how violent, efficient and nasty this Jaguars team can get. An opener against the Cleveland Browns is always good for the soul.”
FOX SportsRalph Vacchiano11th“Yeah, yeah, Liam Coen’s team looked great. Trevor Lawrence looked unstoppable. I’ll be way more impressed if the Jags do this against anyone other than the Browns.”
PFFBradley Locker12th“The Jaguars didn’t mess around against the Browns, dominating from start to finish courtesy of their hyper-efficient offense. … Liam Coen’s squad will get a much more serious test in Week 2 against the Broncos, but the Jaguars have the balanced coaching and talent to make another run.”
Where the reaction diverges from the columns.
The reaction online is running hotter than the columns, and the enthusiasm is aimed at Liam Coen as much as at Lawrence. The “it was only the Browns” frame barely appears - the skepticism in the reaction threads is pointed at Cleveland. The analytics layer is backing the eye test rather than hedging it: PFF has Lawrence at an 86.2 passing grade and +0.82 EPA per pass play, which it expects to be among the highest marks of the season. He went 11-of-12 on throws of 10+ yards for 179 yards and three touchdowns - a career high for deep touchdowns in a game, and the part of the profile that should travel to Denver.
One thread is loud online and absent from all ten rankings: Travis Hunter’s snap split. Four offensive snaps, seven percent, against 29 on defense. One carry for three yards, one catch for eight, one tackle. ClutchPoints ran it as “Travis Hunter experiment is flopping, but the Jaguars still look awesome anyway” - which is the register exactly: the win was real, here is the thing underneath it. Same shape, second thread: Parker Washington went 5-83-1 with all of it before halftime and is plainly ahead of Brian Thomas Jr., with no extension signed after a reported $25M-a-year offer. Neither fits a 34-10 blowout, so the columns skip both.
Ten national power rankings, read every Tuesday at 11 AM ET — after Monday night, before the Wednesday takes. Each ballot is scored to the week it reflects, so the “Week 2 rankings” published after Week 1 count here as Week 1. Consensus is the plain average of whoever has published by the cutoff; an outlet that posts late is left out of that week’s average rather than carried over at a stale number, and added once it lands. Preseason is each outlet’s last ballot before kickoff. Odds are Hard Rock Bet’s Florida board, shown as implied win probability. Quotes are verbatim; anything that couldn’t be confirmed word for word is summarized instead of quoted.
Measured Tuesday, September 15. Nine of the ten were up before the 11 AM ET cutoff; PFF landed the following morning and was added once it did.