And on X that nightJacksonville Jaguars @Jaguars — “Josh Cameron: 3 career receptions, 2 career touchdowns 🙂”
Since preseason
▲ 4.0
spots, from a 10.8 baseline
Where the national guys have the Jags, tracked every Tuesday morning. Ten ballots, the Hard Rock line out of Florida, and the running gap between what Duval sees and what they’ll admit.
Consensus line with the full outlet spread. Rank 1 is at the top.
Every outlet, every week. Lower is better.
| Outlet | Preseason | Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 | Wk 6 | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Football TalkMike Florio | 9 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | ▲ 5 |
| ESPNNFL Nation panel | 17 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ▲ 12 |
| NFL.comNick Shook | 9 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | ▲ 4 |
| USA TODAYNate Davis | 14 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 7 | ▲ 7 |
| Bleacher ReportB/R staff panel | 7 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 7 | — |
| Sports IllustratedConor Orr | 9 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | ▲ 1 |
| CBS SportsPete Prisco | 3 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 8 | ▼ 5 |
| FOX SportsRalph Vacchiano | 12 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 8 | ▲ 4 |
| Yahoo SportsFrank Schwab | 14 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 9 | ▲ 5 |
| PFFBradley Locker | 14 | 12 | 12 | pending | pending | pending | pending | ▲ 2 |
| Consensus | 10.8 | 7.7 | 10.3 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 6.8 | ▲ 4.0 |
Outlets call these the “Week 2 rankings.” They’re scored here to the week they reflect.
Hard Rock Bet, Florida. Bar shows implied win probability.
| Market | Market open Feb 2026 | Wk 1 Post-CLE | Wk 2 Post-DEN | Wk 3 Post-NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC SouthJaguars to win the AFC South | 36.4%+175 | 42.6%+135 | 45.5%+120 | 57.4%-135 |
| AFCJaguars to win the AFC | 8.3%+1100 | 7.7%+1200 | 8.3%+1100 | 10.0%+900 |
| Super Bowl LXIJaguars to win Super Bowl LXI | 4.8%+2000 | 4.3%+2250 | 4.3%+2250 | 4.8%+2000 |
Odds read at Hard Rock Bet on Tuesday, September 29. The division number crossed over: Jacksonville opened the season at +175 to win the AFC South and is now -135, the first time all year the Jaguars have been priced as the favorite in their own division. The AFC number came in from +1100 to +900 and the Super Bowl price returned to its opening +2000. The market moved further in one week than the columns did.
The consensus read on the team and on Trevor Lawrence.
The board gave back some of the Week 5 peak, but nobody rewrote the story. The consensus moved from 4.3 to 6.8 on nine ballots, still four slots better than the 10.8 preseason baseline, and the loss came by three points after Jacksonville erased a 10-point deficit in London against a Texans team that has now won two straight. Florio kept them at 4, Shook and the ESPN panel held at 5, and Orr, who dropped them six spots, still wrote that it is hard to penalize them much for a shootout and that he likes the ceiling. Vacchiano pointed at the part the rankings do not price in: a bye, then the Colts, the Giants and two meetings with the Titans. At 4-2 with Houston at 2-4, the division is still Jacksonville’s to lose.
The defense was the problem, and it was not a one-week problem. Before Sunday the Jaguars ranked 27th in net yards per pass attempt allowed and 30th in passing yards allowed, and then they let C.J. Stroud pick them apart. Schwab called it a big letdown, Vacchiano called it a wake-up call, and Houston’s running game, which Vacchiano described as disastrous, still found 114 yards. Penalties are the other thread: DiRocco counted three touchdowns they have cost the offense this season, and Sunday’s questionable holding call on Brenton Strange was followed two plays later by a Lawrence interception in the end zone. Prisco’s ask is specific: a pass rusher at the trade deadline.
Lawrence barely appears in this week’s blurbs, which is its own kind of read. The columns were about Travis Hunter and the defense; the only place the quarterback shows up in what I read is DiRocco’s penalty note, the end zone interception that followed the Strange holding call. Vacchiano wrote that the offense is finally starting to click, and Orr, Florio and Shook all credited the two-way plan around Hunter rather than the passing game. No outlet this week moved Lawrence into or out of an MVP conversation.
Five slots, Florio at 4 to Schwab at 9. Seven of nine ballots fell and none rose: Orr six, Schwab four, Prisco four, Vacchiano three, Davis two, B/R two, Florio one, with ESPN and Shook unchanged at 5. The consensus dropped 2.4 slots, the second-largest weekly fall of the season behind the 2.6 after the Denver loss, and the spread explains why: the outlets that had moved them up fastest in October gave back the most. Orr went from 2 to 8, Schwab from 5 to 9. One ballot is missing: PFF’s weekly rankings were not published or not findable on Tuesday.
Pro Football TalkMike Florio4th“They’re finally getting a return on the Travis Hunter investment.”
ESPNMichael DiRocco5th“Penalties have cost the Jaguars three touchdowns, including a pair of 3-yard touchdown runs by running back Bhayshul Tuten.”
NFL.comNick Shook5th“Travis Hunter’s emergence should be monitored going forward — his two-way ability is finally adding significant value to the Jaguars’ larger equation.”
USA TODAYNate Davis7th“CB/WR Travis Hunter played a season-high 71 snaps Sunday, quite a few of them impactful, and the Jags lost — through no fault of Hunter, who’s played nearly every defensive snap the past three weeks.”
Sports IllustratedConor Orr8th“It’s hard to penalize the Jaguars that much for a shootout loss to the heating-up Texans. … I like the ceiling for this team.”
FOX SportsRalph Vacchiano8th“The Jaguars’ offense is finally starting to click, but their 34-31 loss to the Texans in London should be a wake-up call that their defense isn’t everything they thought it was.”
Yahoo SportsFrank Schwab9th“Their defense had a big letdown against Houston as it allowed C.J. Stroud to pick apart the Jaguars.”
Where the reaction diverges from the columns.
This section reflects coverage of the reaction; posts on X could not be read this week. Hunter’s two-way breakout is the thing everyone wants to talk about: a season-high 71 snaps, an interception, four catches for 59 yards and a touchdown, in a loss. Orr and Davis both wrote that the team is still working out how best to use Hunter, and Shook wrote that his emergence should be monitored. The mood around the loss itself is closer to irritation than alarm.
The thing the rankings mostly skate past. Brian Thomas Jr. is still the open question. Davis closed his Hunter note with “Same can’t be said for WR Brian Thomas Jr.”, and Orr’s ceiling argument mentions possibly trading him. With the deadline approaching, the other open question is the pass rush: Prisco wants a move for one, and DiRocco noted two weeks ago that Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker had combined for 3.5 sacks. The columns grade the loss; they do not price in two deadline needs for a team that is 4-2 and off this week.
Ten national power rankings, read every Tuesday at 11 AM ET — after Monday night, before the Wednesday takes. Each ballot is scored to the week it reflects, so the “Week 2 rankings” published after Week 1 count here as Week 1. Consensus is the plain average of whoever has published by the cutoff; an outlet that posts late is left out of that week’s average rather than carried over at a stale number, and added once it lands. Preseason is each outlet’s last ballot before kickoff. Odds are Hard Rock Bet’s Florida board, shown as implied win probability. Quotes are verbatim; anything that couldn’t be confirmed word for word is summarized instead of quoted.
Measured Tuesday, September 15. Nine of the ten were up before the 11 AM ET cutoff; PFF landed the following morning and was added once it did.